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September 26, 2021 - Sponsored by the South Point Hotel, Casino & Spa - Get your South Point 400 NASCAR Race Package Today.

The 2020 NASCAR South Point 400 gets underway at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday, September 27.

The race marks the first of three events that will determine who makes it to the Cup Series Playoffs Round of 8. It goes without saying that the heat is on for the likes of Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski to deliver the goods.

But today, we’re looking past the favorites to a few sleepers for the South Point 400. These guys below are not considered to be popular choices for the race, but their big odds and accompanying statistics could convince you to drop a few coins on them.

Let’s start with the first of my picks, Mr. Aric Almirola.

    Who's made moves as the #NASCARPlayoffs Round of 12 heads to @LVMotorSpeedway?
    An all-new Power Rankings powered by @MackTrucks is here! pic.twitter.com/IH6OrWH8ie

    — NASCAR (@NASCAR) September 23, 2020

Tied at eight-place on the Cup Series playoffs standings, Almirola will be hoping to strike it lucky in Las Vegas. At the very least, he needs something resembling his excellent fifth-place finish at Bristol last week to keep him in the reckoning for a spot in the Round of 8.

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Almirola has an average finish of 11.83 from his previous six races at “The Diamond in the Desert,” and that includes three top-ten finishes. Overall, his average career finish at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway is less impressive, at 22.07.

Ahead of February’s Pennzoil 400 in Vegas, the 36-year-old set the fastest lap at 178.654 mph (30.226 seconds). In the race, Almirola could only manage a disappointing 21st place.

Consecutive finishes of 10, 6, and 7 in the three races between March 2018 and 2019 mark his best patch on this track. But at odds +2500, he is worth keeping an eye on. As a driver still in with a shout of progressing to the next round, I expect a big performance.

Jimmie Johnson +4000

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Johnson has found his way into my sleepers for a few races this season but hasn’t really done anything that special. And by special, I mostly mean win a race.

However, he did finish fifth at the Pennzoil 400 in February. Back then, knowing 2020 was to be his final Cup Series campaign, that was a great way to start the season. He finished 7th at Fontana the following week and has had great races at Bristol, Daytona, and Dover since then. But no wins.

Naturally, there is a reason for Johnson making my list again this week. The wins? Sure, we can talk about Johnson’s four wins in Vegas, but let’s be honest, they were between 2005 and 2010. In his last two races here, however, he finished 5th and 11th. From his last ten races at Vegas, he has two 6th places, one fifth, and one 3rd. Those stats are probably a fairer representation of what to expect here.

But look, you don’t get odds of +4000 for no reason. The chances of Johnson winning the race are, well, in line with his odds. Still, if he is on the grid, he has a shot.

Bowyer is, unlike Johnson, sitting inside the playoffs picture. And that means that he isn’t quite ready to give up on the idea of racing through the postseason.

His track record at Las Vegas isn’t dynamite. Bowyer finished 12th in spring’s race here and has an average overall finish of 17.94. But although he has never won at Las Vegas, he has had some decent moments. The best of which came in a 2009 race at the track where he managed to finish as runner up.

Bowyer’s form this season has been impressive. He snuck into the #12 slot in the Round of 12 on account of points accrued. Finishing 6th at Bristol last weekend, Bowyer made it five top-tens from his last seven races, ending three of them as the sixth man to cross the line.

Odds of +5000? For a driver still in the playoffs? I’ll take them all day, thank you very much.

Matt DiBenedetto +5000

If your mind is set on betting longshots at the South Point 400, why not consider DiBenedetto at these odds?

2nd in the Pennzoil 400 in February, DiBenedetto put in a fantastic shift that day to surprise many fans. It was his best performance in Las Vegas, and he will be keen to test himself here once more.

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The Californian has seven top-tens and two top-fives this season. He has finished 6th twice and 7th on another occasion. While he may not have playoffs to contest, he is still a driver with ambition, and it will be interesting to see what he does with that on Sunday.

At odds of +5000, he is worth some of that spare change you found while emptying your pockets.

Final Words

So, there you have it, my four sleepers for the South Point 400 at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway this Sunday, September 27.

Could Aric Almirola, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer, or Matt DiBenedetto be the talking point after the race? Well, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility. If you’re not majorly convinced, perhaps my shorter odds pick in this South Point 400 betting preview might be more to your liking.

Got a good sleeper for this weekend? Let me know who you are backing, and why, in the comments section below.

Oh, and enjoy the race!